--3/30/19 SATURDAY 6:30AM FINAL FORECAST FOR THE SHERIFF'S CUP--
Not much chage since the last forecast. Weak High pressure slowly wobbles out over the Atlantic today. The result is a very light Southerly flow that becomes modest with Sea Breeze assists this afternoon. As we head into Sunday, the High becomes slightly more robust over the Atlantic while a cold front quickly approaches. Winds become more SSW/SW in nature and increase from modest morning values to midday/early afternoon moderate Sea Breeze values. Watch for a Westerly transition by mid afternoon as the front moves overhead.
Wind and Swell Forecast Also Remains mostly on Track:
Today: Sunny and warm - high's in the upper 70's to near 80 inland, mid 60's over and near the cool shelf waters.
6AM-8AM: Light and variable Southerly winds.
8AM-10AM: Winds are expected to be light from the S/SSE or SbE 160° - 180° between 2-6kts. Possible to see a few variances inside the harbor SW or SSW, but remaining light in the lower single digits overall.
10AM-12PM: Winds hold between SbE and SbW 170° - 190° as the Sea Breeze mildly taps in to reach 5-9kts.
12PM-4PM: Winds remain from the SbE and SbW 170°-190° at 8-12kts and potential for directions to veer fully SSW at 9-13kts with any stronger Sea Breeze coupling. Overall, the higher speeds are expected to be hugged in closer to the coast; however, there could be spotty areas of nearshore/offshore pockets of low teens where Sea Breezes off the distant warm Gulf Stream are terminating over the cool shelf waters.
4PM-7PM: Directions hold to the above values with speeds falling off a couple of knots back down to 6-10kts. Slight chance for SSW flow to bump up again to 8-12kts along an early arrival of mild nocturnal jetting.
Here is the NAM3km showing the Sea Breezes hugged into the coast/inland with lighter values offshore:
And the GFS is a bit more optimistic with a wider gerth of Sea Breeze activity at the 2PM mark:
Today's swell heights still on track at ~11AM EST....~2ft from the ESE/SE. The modest afternoon S'rly surface winds are likely to create a slight chop across the primary ground swell.
Sunday: Leaving from Rockville back to CHS, the forecast is still on track for winds as a cold front appraoches from the west, but now isolated showers/possible convective actvity is getting pushed up in time to early or mid afternoon. We can expect steady modest to moderate increases along a SSW/SW flow widely ahead the front.
7AM-11AM: SW/SSW (200° - 230°) at 8-12kts
11AM - 2PM: Continued directions SW/SSW (200° - 235°) at 10-14kts along / just offshore. Some potential for some strengthening 14-18kts w/ low 20's gusts ahead of any showers or possible isolated storms. Coastal breaks such as the Chas Harbor are likely to show higher averages between 15-19kts w/ gusts low 20's.
2PM-5PM: Winds are expected to veer WSW-->W->WNW while the front moves overhead and stalls temporarily. This keep messy condiions around into the evening.
5PM-8PM: Winds continue to clock NW/NNW with moderate impulses into the mid/upper teens.
Sunday 8AM GFS:
Sunday 2PM GFS:
Swell heights Sunday 11AM:
Primary SSE swell 2ft starting to increase towards 3ft. Cross chop will be likely from SSW/SW flow across it.
By 2PM, we see the swell fully from the S 2-3ft - possibly a half-foot higher depending on strength of Gulf Stream winds to push higher waves towards the coast.
Overall Sea Surface Temps ~61°- 62°
BEST OF LUCK TODAY, RACERS!!!
3/29/19 FRIDAY NIGHT 10PM UPDATE:
Forecast is on track from yesterday's video update and tonight's Skippers Meeting Discussion. There is a chance that the Southerly flow could be middle single digits at 9AM vs the nearly tranquil/variable conditions aforementioned, but probability is still suggesting lower confidence on anything above 6 or 7kts. Next update will be early likely before sunrise.
3/28/19 THURSDAY EVENING 6:20PM FORECAST UPDATE VIA YouTube video: